Assessing the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Cocoa Production in Osun State, Nigeria

F. S. Omotayo, F. F. Akinola, M. O. Lasisi — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Nigeria ranked among the world's four leading cocoa producers in 2021, with estimated output of between 250,000 and 300,000 metric tonnes, which contributed significantly to the country's non-oil export earnings. The southern states of Ondo, Cross River, Osun, Ekiti, Edo and Oyo are the main production areas. However, the sector has faced challenges such as low productivity, ageing trees and declining yields relative to those of regional peers. Among the effects of climate change experienced by Nigerian cocoa farmers are irregular rainfall, prolonged dry periods and greater pest and disease pressure on cocoa trees. These pressures have contributed to lower yields and deterioration in bean quality. Multiple linear regression was employed to identify climatic variables showing significant associations with cocoa yield. To investigate climate-related changes in cocoa production in the study area, downscaled outputs from six global circulation models (GCMs) were used. Climate and crop-yield simulations covered three periods: 1976–2005 (historical), 2021–2050 (mid-term) and 2071–2100 (long-term), under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario. Fig. 5 illustrates the projected future changes in cocoa yield under RCP 4.5. For the study area, the GCM ensemble indicated annual yield reductions of 13,696 tonnes/year by 2050 and 20,004 tonnes/year by 2100. If these ensemble projections materialise, the resulting losses are estimated at approximately US$60,947,200 in 2050 and US$89,017,800 in 2100, respectively, on the assumption of a cocoa price of US$4,450 per tonne. Farmers should implement effective adaptation measures to limit the effects of future climate change on cocoa yield, with necessary inputs, including fungicides and pesticides, supplied to control cocoa black pod disease.

Mechanization and Agronomic Approaches for Reducing Farm Drudgery and Labour Requirement in Agriculture: A Critical Narrative Review

Tue, 13 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Agricultural work remains physically demanding and strongly seasonal in many production systems, while labour scarcity, rising wages, ageing farm populations, and competing non-farm employment are increasing pressure to complete operations with less human effort. This critical narrative review evaluates how mechanization and agronomic redesign can reduce farm drudgery and labour requirement without assuming that labour saved at an individual task is equivalent to labour displaced from agriculture. Literature published from 1 January 1990 to 6 August 2026 was identified through accessible scholarly databases and indexes, supplemented by citation searching and authoritative institutional sources. Evidence was appraised for study design, measurement of labour and ergonomic outcomes, external validity, treatment of confounding, duration, and attention to gender, safety, and implementation conditions. The strongest evidence indicates that mechanization can markedly reduce time and physiological burden in power-intensive and repetitive operations, but whole-farm labour effects vary because mechanization also changes cultivated area, input intensity, timeliness, and the allocation of family and hired labour. Ergonomic hand tools and scale-appropriate machines are especially important where capital-intensive mechanization is infeasible. Agronomic approaches such as zero or reduced tillage and direct-seeded rice can remove labour-intensive operations, yet their labour-saving value is conditional on weed control, crop establishment, residue management, and access to compatible equipment. Conservation agriculture illustrates this conditionality: manual planting basins or increased hand weeding can offset labour savings, whereas mechanized establishment and effective weed management can reduce peak labour demand. Gendered task allocation, machinery access, custom hiring services, occupational safety, and rural employment transitions determine who benefits and who bears adjustment costs. Robotics and autonomous equipment may address labour shortages in selected systems, but economic feasibility, field reliability, supervision, and human-machine safety remain important constraints. The review concludes that drudgery reduction is best pursued through integrated mechanization-agronomy packages evaluated with task-specific ergonomic measures and whole-household, whole-season labour accounting.

Journal of Agriculture and Ecology Research International

Assessing the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Cocoa Production in Osun State, Nigeria

Mechanization and Agronomic Approaches for Reducing Farm Drudgery and Labour Requirement in Agriculture: A Critical Narrative Review